Football
Intelligence.

Measure. Don’t Guess.

A live football intelligence engine that measures the current state of a match and models second-half probabilities.

Join the Beta → Scroll to learn more ↓

A NUMBER 2.48 Second-half xG

LIVE STATE

Shots (H)7

xG (H)1.26

CCQ (H)0.42

MODEL EDGE

Over 1.5 Goals+18.6%

Over 2.5 Goals+9.3%

Real-time data. Robust modelling. Clear edges.

THE PLATFORM

What is

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Measure

Capture the live match state using the data that matters.

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Model

Turn the first half into probabilities and fair prices.

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Execute

Compare the model with the market and follow your read.

BLIND RESULTS

Measure the model.
Not the winners.

Every eligible Aria calculation belongs here. The primary evidence is how closely Aria's projected second-half xG and goals match what actually happened.

SECOND-HALF xG CALIBRATION

ARIA PROJECTED—

ACTUAL—

DIFFERENCE—

Underlying attacking output: projected second-half xG against actual second-half xG.

SECOND-HALF GOALS CALIBRATION

ARIA PROJECTED—

ACTUAL—

DIFFERENCE—

Outcome calibration: Aria's projected second-half goals against the goals actually scored.

TODAY'S TOP 10 READS

Where Aria reads best today.

Today's active leagues, ranked automatically by Aria's current second-half xG calibration.

#LeaguexG CalibrationMatches

No active Aria leagues today. Today’s table will appear automatically when leagues are active.

Calibration ranks how closely Aria's projected second-half xG has matched subsequent second-half xG. It is not a profitability ranking.

ENTER THE ENGINE

One page.
One live read.

Select the fixture, confirm it is eligible, enter the half-time data and run Aria.

ENGINE · MANUAL MODE

Choose Match

Select the fixture you want Aria to assess.

League Home Team Away Team

Eligibility Check

Manual for now. This can later be supplied by live match data.

First-half penalty? No Yes

First-half red card? No Yes

Half-Time Inputs

Only the information Aria needs from the user.

Metric

Home

Away

HT Score

Home HT Score Away HT Score

Home xG Away xG

Shots

Home Shots Away Shots

BETFAIR MARKET

Enter exchange back prices to compare the market with Aria's fair price.

Home Win Draw Away Win Over 0.5 Over 1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5

Back prices only. All odds are delayed by ~3 minutes.

Aria Result

Calculated by the private Aria engine.

A NUMBER 2.14 HIGH SECOND-HALF EXPECTATION Private engine output

ARIA'S READ

Run Aria to generate the match read.

Match Result

Home Win43%

Draw31%

Away Win26%

Goal Markets

Over 0.588%

Over 1.571%

Over 2.549%

Over 3.522%

VALUE MONITOR

Market vs Aria fair price

BANK £ Live calculation

MarketIncludeBetfair Exchange(Back)Aria Fair Price(Fair)Edge(after commission)StatusKelly Stake

Home WinMatch Odds Use — 2.33 — WAIT £0.00

DrawMatch Odds Use — 3.23 — WAIT £0.00

Away WinMatch Odds Use — 3.85 — WAIT £0.00

Over 0.5Total Goals Use — 1.14 — WAIT £0.00

Over 1.5Total Goals Use — 1.41 — WAIT £0.00

Over 2.5Total Goals Use — 2.04 — WAIT £0.00

Over 3.5Total Goals Use — 4.55 — WAIT £0.00

ARIA KELLY SPREAD £0.00 1/8 Kelly · maximum total exposure 6% of bank · 2% exchange commission

Betfair Exchange: Delayed back price (~3 mins) Aria Fair Price: Aria's calculated fair price Edge uses Aria probability against the exchange price after 2% commission.

BUILT IN PUBLIC

Research. Development. Progress.

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Articles

Deep dives and research.

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Videos

Walkthroughs and explanations.

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Development Log

See what is being built.

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Roadmap

What comes next.

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Beta Membership

Free while Aria is in beta.

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Book Club

Better thinking, not betting systems.

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Resources

Tools and references.

FootballIntelligence.